THE NEW YORK TIMES: The conflict is reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and diplomatic alliances.
Since President Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has portrayed it as a shock-and-awe assault with few lasting consequences, especially for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he called it a “brief disruption.”
Experts say it is rapidly becoming something else entirely: a jolt to the global security order and economy that far exceeds those delivered by other recent conflicts in the Middle East.
Mr. Trump’s war, now nearly two weeks old, is already reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and strategic partnerships. Countries typically shielded from regional conflict, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory Iranian fire. The fallout could disrupt midterm elections in the United States, tilt the war calculus in Ukraine and force China into a major economic pivot.
Those effects may compound if Mr. Trump presses ahead with the war, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and blocks ship traffic through the critical oil passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Some economists are already invoking a dreaded memory for any U.S. president — the specter of oil-shock-induced stagflation, with growth stalling and prices roaring upward. » | Jim Tankersley | Reporting from Berlin, Washington and London’s Heathrow Airport | Wednesday, March 11, 2026