THE NEW YORK TIMES: Stock investors are betting that companies will make enormous profits, despite the war. But investors in bonds, including U.S. Treasuries, have other concerns.
The U.S. stock market has been splendid lately, while the bond market has wobbled. These two barometers of the global financial world have responded quite differently to the higher oil prices and increased economic risks induced by the war in Iran.
After a rough stretch in March, the U.S. stock market has regularly shrugged off risk — not only recovering its losses since the start of the war but going on to new highs, as investors bet that publicly traded U.S. companies would keep reaping enormous profits, regardless of what happened in the war.
Other international stock markets, which had performed marvelously before the war and took heavy losses in March, have also rebounded stoutly. International stock markets overall are ahead of the U.S. stock market since the start of the year.
But the bond market is another matter. Bond traders have maintained a much sharper focus on risk. Yields remain correlated with shifts in the price of oil. As oil prices have spiked and inflation has risen, yields have risen and bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, have fallen. » | Jeff Sommer | eff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy. | Thursday, May 7, 2026