Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
April 18, 2020
Paul Krugman: ‘We Really Are Talking about a Depression Level Event’ | The Last Word | MSNBC
Bridging Divides: Most Agree on Economic Outlook: It’s Bleak
The coronavirus pandemic has united Americans of different races and income levels in deep pessimism about the economy, in contrast to the widely divergent views that prevailed before the crisis.
Highly paid or less so, black or white, investors in the stock market or not, Americans largely expect a poor or mixed performance from the economy in the coming year and prolonged damage over the next five years, according to a poll for The New York Times by the online research firm SurveyMonkey.
Those groups also roundly support the stringent limits on economic activity that state and local officials have imposed to slow the spread of the virus and minimize its death toll. » | Ben Casselman and Jim Tankersley | Saturday, April 18, 2020
April 03, 2020
September 11, 2017
Dr. Richard Wolff - Are We A “Depression" Away From Fascist America?
January 14, 2016
'China to Spark Global Financial Ice Age with Depression Sending Markets Crashing by 75%'
The sinking value of the Chinese currency is already crippling British industry as it can’t compete with China’s cheap exports.
Other Western nations are also feeling the strain.
And with even more to come experts have predicted an 'ice age' for the world’s economies – including Britain’s.
Global deflation is going to wipe around 75 per cent in value off the American S&P stock market, as western firms will be unable to compete with cheap Chinese exports, according to analyst Albert Edwards from french bank Societe Generale.
He gave the stark warning in an investment note to clients.
And he blamed the upcoming 'carnage' on American central bank (the Fed) and its British and European counterparts for inflating prices in the first place.
American Quantitative Easing (QE) - injecting extra money into the financial system - has push up global asset prices, teeing up a disastrous fall, Mr Edward believes.
He said: "Investors are coming to terms with what a Chinese renminbi devaluation means for Western markets.
"It means global deflation and recession. » | Lana Clements | Thursday, January 14, 2016
November 22, 2011
THE INDEPENDENT – BLOGS – GLEN O’HARA: What do about the Great Recession? The answer of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, has thus far been to cut, cut and cut again. And when he presents his Autumn Statement to the House of Commons next week, the Chancellor is expected to stick to the austerity script. But the intellectual rationale for this prescription is tenuous at best.
In fact, most governments – and especially that of the United Kingdom – are running hard in the wrong direction. … Read on and comment » | Glen O’Hara | Eagle Eye | Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Dr Glen O’Hara is Reader in the History of Public Policy at Oxford Brookes University. His new book, ‘Governing Post-War Britain: The Paradoxes of Progress’, will be published early in 2012 by Palgrave Macmillan. He blogs, in a personal capacity, at http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.com/.
October 03, 2011
THE SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: The world savings rate has surpassed its modern-era high of 24pc. This is the killer in the global system. It is why we are at imminent risk of tipping into a second, deeper leg of intractable depression.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the savings mountain to rise yet further next year as the governments of Europe, Britain, and the US tighten belts, in unison, by up to 2pc of GDP.
This is double the intensity of the last big synchronized squeeze in 1980.
They will do so before the private sector is ready to grasp the baton, and without stimulus from the trade surplus states (Germany, China, Japan) to offset the contraction in demand.
Put another way, there is a chronic lack of consumption in the world. "This probably comes as a surprise to most people, gorged on propaganda about excessive debt and the need for retrenchment," said Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research.
The inevitable outcome of one-sided austerity polices in the Anglo-sphere and Club Med is a self-feeding downward slide for the whole global system, a variant of 1930s debt-deflation. "Excess savers refuse to acknowledge that if world savings are demonstrably too high, healthy recovery depends on the surplus countries saving less," he said.
Mr Dumas said China's "grotesque and destructive" policies of over-investment (50pc of GDP) and under-consumption (36pc of GDP) are unprecedented in history, but at least China's currency advantage is being eroded by wage inflation.
His full wrath is reserved for the "fallacious and malignant policies" of Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schauble [sic] in Germany. They are enforcing a Gold Standard outcome on the whole eurozone. "Suffused with self-righteousness, they insist that the imbalances must be put right only by deficit-country deflation." » | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor | Sunday, October 02, 2011
June 30, 2011
Are we reliving the 1930s or the 1970s? Looking at the catastrophe which has befallen Greece, it’s beginning to seem more like the former. The economic upheaval of the 1970s was pretty awful at the time, but ultimately, Western economies worked their way through the decade’s inflationary challenges to enter an unprecedented period of prosperity and economic advancement.
It’s much less easy to be optimistic about the outcome of today’s uniquely complex mix of economic conditions. Admittedly, there is as yet no comparison with the social deprivations of the 1930s, but even so, the inability of many countries to raise themselves out of their post-bubble slump makes comparisons with the pre-war era hard to avoid.
Everything up to and including the kitchen sink has been chucked at the problem, but still we are struggling to achieve escape velocity. Both in terms of fiscal and monetary measures, policymakers are all out of ammo.
The point has not been lost on the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – often referred to as the central bankers’ bank. In its annual report this week, it draws the opposite conclusion to the one you might expect. If this were a 1930s-style slump, you might expect the BIS to support the present policy mix of ultra-loose monetary and fiscal measures. Instead, it sees this more as part of the problem than the solution. “The sooner advanced economies abandon the leverage-led growth that precipitated the great recession, the sooner they will shed the destabilising debt accumulated during the last decade and return to sustainable growth,” it says. “The time for public and private consolidation is now.”
Much the same strictures are aimed at the Bank of England, whose tolerance of relatively high inflation in pursuit of increasingly elusive growth is regarded by the BIS as dangerous and, if sustained, likely to trigger the kind of super-inflation seen in the 1970s. Continue reading and comment » | Jeremy Warner | Wednesday, June 29, 2011
January 25, 2011
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: Britain's economy shrank unexpectedly in the final three months of last year as heavy snow compounded a slowdown in growth.Gross domestic product fell 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, the most in more than a year, the Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday. The decline compared with growth of 0.7pc in the third quarter.
George Osborne insisted that the Government will press ahead with planned cuts to public spending, despite warnings from forecasters that the economy may be too weak to withstand the package.
Blaming the growth figures on the cold weather, Mr Osborne maintained that a weakening in efforts to tackle the deficit would pose a greater bigger threat to the nation's future prosperity.
"There is no question of changing a fiscal plan that has established international credibility on the back of one very cold month. That would plunge Britain back into a financial crisis," the Chancellor said.
"We will not be blown off course by bad weather." Read on and comment >>> | Tuesday, January 25, 2011
July 16, 2010
THE TELEGRAPH: Rarely before have a few coded words in the minutes of the US Federal Reserve caused such an upheaval in the global currency system, or such a sudden flight from the dollar.
The euro rocketed to a two-month high of $1.29 and sterling jumped two cents to almost $1.54 after the Fed confessed that the US economy may not recover for five or six years. Far from winding down emergency stimulus, the bank may need a fresh blast of bond purchases or quantitative easing.
Usually the dollar serves as a safe haven whenever the world takes fright, and there was plenty of sobering news from China and other quarters on Thursday. Not this time. The US itself has become the problem.
"The worm is turning," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "We're in a world of rotating sovereign crises. The market seems to become obsessed with one idea at a time, then violently swings towards another. People thought the euro would break-up. Now we're moving into a new phase because we're hearing alarm bells of a US double dip."
Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said.
The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.
"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.
"The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months."
The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus. Continue reading and comment >>> Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor | Thursday, July 15, 2010
September 25, 2009
THE TELEGRAPH: Spain is sliding into a full-blown economic depression with unemployment approaching levels not seen since the Second Republic of the 1930s and little chance of recovery until well into the next decade, according to a clutch of reports over recent days.
The Madrid research group RR de Acuña & Asociados said the collapse of Spain's building industry will cause the economy to contract for the next three years, with a peak to trough loss of over 11pc of GDP. The grim forecast is starkly at odds with claims by premier Jose Luis Zapatero, who still says Spain's recession will be milder than elsewhere in Europe.
RR de Acuña said the overhang of unsold properties on the market, or still being built, has reached 1,623,000 . This dwarfs annual demand of 218,000, and will take six or seven years to clear. The group said Spain's unemployment will peak at around 25pc, comparable to the worst chapter of the Great Depression.
Spanish workers typically receive 50pc to 60pc of their former pay for eighteen months after losing their job. Then the guillotine falls. Spain's parliament has rushed through a law guaranteeing €420 a month for long-term unemployed, but this will not prevent a social crisis if the slump drags on.
Separately, UBS said unemployment will reach 4.8m and may go as high as 5.4m if the job purge in the service sector gathers pace. There is the growing risk of a "Lost Decade" akin to Japan's malaise after the Nikkei bubble.
Roberto Ruiz, the bank's Spain strategist, said salaries must fall by 10pc in real terms to regain lost competitiveness, replicating the sort of wage squeeze seen in Germany after reunification.
There is no sign yet that either Spanish trade unions or the Zapatero government are ready for such draconian measures. Talks between the unions and Spain's industry federation (CEOE) broke down in acrimony in July.
Mr Ruiz said the construction sector will shrink from 18pc of GDP at the peak of the boom to around 5pc, making it unlikely that there will be any significant recovery before 2012. Even then growth will be "slow, weak, and fragile".
The Spanish government can do little to cushion the downturn. "The room for manouvre in fiscal policy has been exhausted," said Mr Ruiz. >>> Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | Thursday, September 24, 2009
August 28, 2009
THE TELEGRAPH: Beneath its idyllic exterior, Martha's Vineyard – beloved holiday destination of America's well-heeled – is rife with depression, alcoholism, drug abuse and domestic violence.
America's First Family will wave goodbye to Martha's Vineyard tomorrow after a week's holiday on an island whose name is rarely uttered without the epithet "idyllic".
As President Obama flies his family back home to Washington, they will rapidly be followed by an armada of private jets from the tiny local airport. After next weekend's Labour Day holiday, the exodus of billionaire businessmen, media tycoons and Hollywood stars who summer on the island will be complete. From Oprah Winfrey and Beyonce to Valerie Jarrett and the Clintons, they'll all be gone. In a matter of days, the island's population withers from 100,000 to just 15,000.
More than a few of the quitters must feel a twinge of jealousy for those lucky few left behind on the 23-mile island. They shouldn't. The reality of out-of-season – and that in holiday-starved America means any month outside July and August – is anything but a paradise for most of those left behind.
Martha's Vineyard's dark little secret is one of desperately high levels of depression, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and even suicide attempts among a population that struggles to make ends meet in a billionaire's playground when the billionaires have all left.
The last time the island's social problems were publicly totted up – in 2005 - the number of cases of patients treated each year in hospital for alcohol or drug abuse had soared from almost 200 in 2002 to just over 750 three years later. The caseload of patients struggling with depression had grown from 40 in 2002 to 92 in 2005. Suicide attempts climbed almost tenfold, from three in 2002 to 29 in 2005.
Some local experts believe the situation has not got any better. "It's the shadow side of Martha's Vineyard – all the things you don't expect to exist on a luxury island," said Dr Gail Gordon, its former community services senior psychologist. "And it's the seasonal nature of the island that makes our social problems worse. Everyone works so hard over the summer and then there's this let down when all the others go." >>> Tom Leonard | Friday, August 28, 2009
August 26, 2009
THE TELEGRAPH: Despite the hype about recovery, there is no real evidence that the recession is over, says Liam Halligan
The recession is over. The stock market is powering ahead, business confidence is rising and – joy of joys – house prices are looking up. Sit back, relax and bask in the late summer sunshine. The UK is about to enjoy a spectacular V-shaped recovery.
Worried about your debts? Fear not, we'll have ultra-low interest rates for years to come. The world's leading central bankers just said so. No need to save, then – we Brits can borrow and spend our way out of trouble. Again.
I'm not, by nature, pessimistic. I'd really like to say the economy is out of the woods. If I could see signs of genuine growth, I'd shout about them from the rooftops. But I can't honestly say I do. Instead, I see lots of stockbrokers, estate agents and other vested interests talking up "imminent recovery" with no reference to fundamental economic realities.
While desperately wanting to believe the "green shoots" brigade, ordinary households are struggling to remortgage and otherwise viable firms still can't access working capital. Amid the City's summer euphoria, the wider economy continues to haemorrhage jobs – with all the associated fiscal fall-out, to say nothing of the human misery.
Having enjoyed a six-day rally, UK shares have just hit their highest level since Lehman Brothers' collapse last September. This latest price surge is the centrepiece of claims we'll soon return to the sunlit economic uplands.
Yet this stock market upswing is based on little more than hype. Shares have risen in part due to firms imposing one-off cost savings – such as cutting their head count – but mainly because of unprecedented Government intervention.
Any beneficial impact of our wildly expansionary fiscal and monetary stance will soon be over. Once the sugar rush fades, and global investors are back from their summer break, asset prices will start reflecting the far more significant downsides of the UK's reckless policy of printing money and racking up ever more Government debt.
Whatever the "news" from the latest self-serving business surveys, output shrank by a shocking 0.8 per cent between April and June. All parts of the economy remain in recession, apart from the public sector. After five successive quarters of contraction, UK output is down almost 6 per cent since the spring of 2008 – more than double the depth of the early-1990s recession. >>> Liam Halligan | Tuesday, August 25, 2009
April 29, 2009
THE TELEGRAPH: Germany has slashed its growth forecast, admitting in an embarrassing volte-face that the economy will contract by 6pc this year in the worst recession of any major country in the Western world.
Economy minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said the slump was almost entirely due to the collapse of exports, insisting that a "global revival" will restore growth next year.
Even this may be too optimistic. The International Monetary Fund expects a further 1pc contraction in 2010. Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine said Berlin seemed to be hoping and praying that other countries would "pull the German economy out of the mud", sitting on its hands as unemployment reaches 4.6m next year.
Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said company bank deposits in the eurozone have begun to contract at rates not seen since the early 1930s, threatening severe damage in coming months unless the European Central Bank shifts gears fast.
"It's a catastrophe. Company bank deposits have been falling at 1pc a month since December. It is what happened in the US during the Great Depression, and it is why we are seeing such a horrific recession in Europe now," he said. >>> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | Wednesday, April 29, 2009
March 11, 2009
THE TELEGRAPH: The number of billionaires across the globe slumped by almost a third in the last 12 months as many of the world's richest men and women fell victim to the economic recession.
Those worth over £1billion fell from 1,125 in 2008 to just 793, as a combined $2.4 trillion (£1.74 trillion) was wiped off the value of their collective 2008 $4.4 trillion fortune.
As a result, the average billionaire saw their net worth fall from $3.9bn to $3bn in the year, as the value of investments, property and other assets all plunged.
The annual survey of who's who and who's worth what in the upper echelons of the world's entrepreneurial classes, the just-released Forbes 2009 World Billionaires list reveals the damage that has been wreaked on the fortunes of many.
Warren Buffett, the richest man in the world last year with a fortune of $62bn, lost $25bn as a result of declines in the value of his investments, many of which are in the insurance and financial sectors which have been hardest hit by the global recession.
Taking his crown is Bill Gates, who, in spite of reclaiming the top spot in the annual Forbes survey after a year's absence, still saw his Microsoft fortune fall by almost a third, down $18bn to $40bn. >>> By James Quinn in New York | Wednesday, March 11, 2009
leJDD.fr:
Galerie de photos: Les riches deviennent moins riches: Comme chaque année, le magazine Forbes publie son classement annuel des grandes fortunes mondiales. Le crû 2008 a un petit air de crise. >>> | Jeudi 12 Mars 2009
BBC:
Watch BBC video: Billionaires Drop Off Rich List: The financial crisis is taking its toll on the world's richest people, wiping 332 names off the Forbes Magazine's 'rich list' of world billionaires. >>> Caroline Hepker | Wednesday, March 11, 2009
The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Paperback (US) Barnes & Noble >>>
The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Hardcover (US) Barnes & Noble >>>
February 27, 2009
REUTERS: WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy contracted at its sharpest rate since early 1982 in the fourth quarter, revised data showed on Friday, as exports plunged and consumers cut spending by the most in more than 28 years.
The Commerce Department said gross domestic product, which measures the total output of goods and services within U.S. borders, shrank at a revised annual rate of 6.2 percent in the October-December quarter, much steeper than the 3.8 percent fall estimated last month.
The weaker GDP estimate reflected downward revisions to inventories and exports by the department.
U.S. stock index futures extended losses after the report, and the dollar fell against the yen. U.S. government debt prices were steady at higher levels.
"It's just doom all over. There's nothing good to take away from this report. I think there's a few more bad quarters to come," said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York.
Prospects for the first quarter are equally bleak with data so far pointing to an acceleration in the economic downturn, now in its 14th month. >>> By Lucia Mutikani | Friday, February 27, 2009
THE GUARDIAN:
US Economy Shrinks at Worst Pace in 25 Years: Dow plunges over 100 points in early trading as commerce department says US gross domestic contracted at 6.25% >>> Daniel Nasaw in Washington | Friday, February 27, 2009
The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Paperback (US) Barnes & Noble >>>
The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Hardcover (US) Barnes & Noble >>>
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