US Shares Plunge amid Fears of Trump Recession

THE TELEGRAPH: Wall Street’s stock markets plunged amid fears Donald Trump’s tariff trade war will hammer American growth.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite sank by 2.5pc to its lowest level since September after the US president said on Sunday that the world’s largest economy faces “a period of transition.”

The benchmark S&P 500 dropped 1.5pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 1.2pc - a fall of more than 500 points - as Wall Street reassessed the outlook for the US economy.

Morgan Stanley warned the S&P 500 could drop another 5pc to 5,500 points by mid-year, having already slumped more than 3pc so far in 2025 and by more than 7pc from its peak in February. » | Chris Price | Monday, March 10, 2025

The "very stable genius" is doing rather well, I see! He's demonstrating his grasp of economics to the world. – © Mark Alexander

Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession as Tariffs Begin to Bite

THE NEW YORK TIMES: President Trump said that Americans would be better off in the long run from his tariffs, which he said would prevent the country from being “ripped off.”

President Trump declined in an interview aired Sunday to rule out the possibility that his economic policies, including aggressive tariffs against America’s trade partners, would cause a recession.

In the interview with Maria Bartiromo, the host of “Sunday Morning Futures” on Fox News, Mr. Trump also said that he was considering increasing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. The interview took place on Thursday at the White House.

Referencing “rising worries about a slowdown,” Ms. Bartiromo asked Mr. Trump: “Are you expecting a recession this year?”

“I hate to predict things like that,” Mr. Trump responded. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing, and there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Mr. Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China last week rocked stock markets and invited pushback from industries, including the largest automakers, who told the president that the duties would decimate their business. Canada immediately retaliated with tariffs on $20.5 billion worth of American exports and threatened additional measures. China has also placed tariffs on U.S. goods and plans to impose another round on Monday. » | Luke Broadwater, Colby Smith and Ana Swanson | Sunday, March 9, 2025

Germany's Government Confirms Second Year of Recession | DW News

Oct 9, 2024 | The German government has updated its growth forecast for the country’s economy. It is now expecting GDP to drop 0.2 percent for this year, making it the second year in a row with a shrinking economy. We’re talking to ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski about the reasons for Germany’s weakness, how the country stacks up compared to other economic superpowers – and what the future will hold.

Eurozone Sinks into Recession as Cost of Living Crisis Takes Toll

THE GUARDIAN: GDP shrank 0.1% in first quarter of 2023 and final three months of 2022 after revisions to earlier estimates

The eurozone slipped into recession in the first three months of the year, after official figures were revised to show the bloc’s economy shrank as the rising cost of living weighed on consumer spending.

Figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 and the final three months of 2022 after revisions to earlier estimates. A technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. » | Richard Partington, Economics correspondent | Thursday, June 8, 2023

UK Prepares for Recession amid Rising Interest Rates

May 26, 2023 | Owning a home is getting more expensive as lenders begin putting up mortgage rates, spooked by stubbornly high inflation figures.

UK Heads for Long Recession as Economy Shrinks by 0.2%

THE GUARDIAN: ONS figures for three months to September give bleak picture in run-up to chancellor’s autumn statement

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the three months to September, in what is expected to be the beginning of a long recession.

In its first estimate of growth in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) presented a bleak picture of the economy before next week’s autumn statement from the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

Activity in the service sector ground to a halt, with zero growth over the quarter, driven by a fall in consumer spending as households came under mounting pressure from the cost of living crisis.

Growth in the construction sector slowed, while factory output slumped because of a sharp decline in manufacturing as some businesses continued to struggle with supply chain difficulties and shortages of key materials. » | Larry Elliott and Richard Partington | Friday, November 11, 2022

Europe Braces for Recession as Economies Falter: Britain’s economic output fell in the third quarter and European Union officials forecast weakening growth for countries across the continent. »

Economy Latest: Interest Rates Up as Bank of England Warns of Long Recession

Nov 3, 2022 | People are already struggling with soaring costs and a tax burden, the highest since World War Two.

Forecast by the IMF Shows Germany and Italy Are to Tumble into Recession in 2023 | Business Special

More German Businesses Go Bankrupt amid Weak Economy, High Inflation | DW News

A sharp uptick in the number of German firms beginning insolvency proceedings is raising eyebrows in Europe's largest economy. Some 762 firms declared bankruptcy in September — a 34% increase from the same period last year.

And the upward-trend is set to continue this month and the next, according to the Halle Institute for Economic Research. Its new report suggests that by November up to 40% more companies could be beginning insolvency proceedings, compared to the same period last year.

Worst Economic Prediction for a Generation - as UK Heads for Recession

Elon Musk Says a US Recession Is ‘Inevitable’

THE GUARDIAN: Tesla CEO says slump is likely to come in near term, amid plan to lay off 10% of firm’s salaried staff

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, says a US recession is ‘more likely than not in the near term’.Photograph: Joe Skipper/Reuters
Elon Musk has warned that a US recession is “more likely than not” as the Tesla chief executive confirmed plans to cut 10% of salaried staff at the electric carmaker over the next three months.

The world’s richest man said a recession in the US was inevitable but would most probably come in the short term.

“A recession is inevitable at some point. As to whether there is a recession in the near term, that is more likely than not,” Musk said in an interview via videolink at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha on Tuesday.

Musk said Tesla was planning to reduce salaried staff numbers by 10%, confirming plans revealed in an internal email this month by Reuters. » | Dan Milmo and agency | Tuesday, June 21, 2022

US Stocks Worst Day since 2020 amid Recession Worries

THE GUARDIAN: Recession fears are swirling through the markets again, as rising inflation and snarled supply chains hit economies, driving up the cost of living and hitting some company profits.

Last night, US stocks posted the biggest daily drop in almost two years, on concerns that economic growth will falter as central bankers look to raise interest rates to stem the surge in inflation.

Fed chair Jerome Powell’s determination to keep lifting borrowing costs until inflation falls meaningfully has rattled Wall Street, and is likely to push European markets lower today too.

The S&P500 fell more than 4% lower yesterday, Nasdaq slumped more than 5% and the Dow slid more than 3.5%. » | Graeme Wearden | Thursday, May 19, 2022

Recession: The Price Britain Will Pay to Control Inflation

THE GUARDIAN: Analysis: As the Bank of England raises interest rates the message is clear – the 1970s are back

Unemployment rising. Inflation above 10%. Energy prices soaring. Living standards squeezed. The message from the Bank of England was crystal clear: the 1970s are back.

The word stagflation was not to be found in the 100-plus pages of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy report. Yet a period of weak growth and rapidly rising prices is precisely what the Bank says is in store for the UK. The current post-lockdown bounce will be short-lived and, in a real blast from the past, the economy will be driven into recession to bring inflation under control.

Nor is the pain likely to be over quickly. The economy is expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023 and remain weak in the next two years. Unless things take a marked turn for the better, the next general election will take place against a backdrop of weak growth and lengthening dole queues. » | Larry Elliot, Economics editor | Thursday, May 5, 2022

Bank of England raises interest rates as it warns of recession and 10% inflation: Rise to 1% is fourth successive increase and highest level since February 2009 »

UK to Plunge into Deepest Slump On Record with Worst GDP Drop of G7

THE GUARDIAN: Official measure to be declared this week as coronavirus lockdown shrinks GDP by 21% in second quarter

Britain’s economy will be officially declared in recession this week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, as the coronavirus outbreak plunges the country into the deepest slump on record.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday are expected to show that gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic prosperity, fell in the three months to June by 21%.

After a decline of 2.2% in the first quarter, the latest snapshot will confirm the UK economy’s descent into recession after the outbreak spread in March and the government imposed a nationwide lockdown to contain it. Economists consider two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP as the technical definition of a recession. » | Richard Partington | Sunday, August 9, 2020

Marc Faber: This Is Not a Recession; It’s an Ice Age

WIKI: Marc Faber »

Marc Faber Blog »

Gloom Boom Doom »

Who Will Save the World from a Coronavirus Recession? | Counting the Cost

Here Comes the Trump Slump

THE NEW YORK TIMES: And he has only himself to blame.

When he isn’t raving about how the deep state is conspiring against him, Donald Trump loves to boast about the economy, claiming to have achieved unprecedented things. As it happens, none of his claims are true. While both G.D.P. and employment have registered solid growth, the Trump economy simply seems to have continued a long expansion that began under Barack Obama. In fact, someone who looked only at the past 10 years of data would never guess that an election had taken place.

But now it’s starting to look as if Trump really will achieve something unique: He may well be the first president of modern times to preside over a slump that can be directly attributed to his own policies, rather than bad luck.

There has always been a deep unfairness about the relationship between economics and politics: Presidents get both credit and blame for events that usually have little to do with their actions. Jimmy Carter didn’t cause the stagflation that put Ronald Reagan in the White House; George H.W. Bush didn’t cause the economic weakness that elected Bill Clinton; even George W. Bush bears at most tangential responsibility for the 2008 financial crisis.

More recently, the “mini-recession” of 2015-16, a slump in manufacturing that may have tipped the scale to Trump, was caused mainly by a plunge in energy prices rather than any of Barack Obama’s policies.

Now the U.S. economy is going through another partial slump. Once again, manufacturing is contracting. Agriculture is also taking a severe hit, as is shipping. Overall output and employment are still growing, but around a fifth of the economy is effectively in recession. » | Paul Krugman | Thursday, October 3, 2019

The Guardian View on the Brexit Economy: The UK Risks Recession

THE GUARDIAN: There is no good time to be leaving the EU but this might be the worst – as a failure to learn the lessons of the 2008 crash leaves the country exposed to another downturn

There is more than a little truth in the idea that those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. The global financial crisis was meant to lead to an economic and political reckoning for neoliberals carried away with their own ideology. They made all sorts of unrealistic promises that even a brief reflection would have shattered. Yet more than a decade on, the reckoning is far from over. This is especially true in the United Kingdom, whose prime minister peddles a sunny optimism in the merits of splendid isolation to fuel his Brexit fantasies. History ought to be a protection against this stripe of reckless utopianism. Yet in a world of instant headlines and short-term hits, who has time to dwell on the inconvenient truths? Still, dwell we must. David Blanchflower, the US-based economist, points out that thanks to a short-sighted austerity policy this has been the slowest economic recovery for 300 years. While politicians trumpet near-record levels of unemployment and wage growth, they fail to mention that the latest figures show that average earnings, when adjusted for inflation, stands today at £525 a week in total pay, £22 lower than in February 2008 » | Editorial | Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Forget a 2008 Lehman Bros-style Crash – This Is How a ‘Normal’ Recession Could Start

THE GUARDIAN: Current political uncertainty or trade restrictions could shock business confidence, but policymakers are fixated on finance

There’s a hoary old proverb in the financial markets that a crisis happens precisely when the institutional memory of the last crisis has faded: when all the key chairs are occupied by people who aren’t scared any more, the same mistakes get repeated.

On that basis, in the face of grim economic news around the world, we ought to be reasonably safe from another Lehman Brothers-type meltdown, or even a repeat of the eurozone crisis. But what might be a little bit more worrying is that there are surprisingly few people left who remember how the normal kind of recession happens. » | Dan Davies | Friday, August 16, 2019

Steve Keen Says US Heading for 2020 Recession

September 19, 2018 -- Steve Keen, professor of economics at Kingston University, discusses inequality, Federal Reserve policy, house prices and the U.S. economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."