Friday, 11 March 2011

Brace for $200 Oil If Unrest Hits Saudi Arabia

Commentary: Riyadh pulls the strings on global markets’ next act

MARKET WATCH: SEATTLE — Strong markets are supposed to rise along a wall of worry. This one was rising very nicely amid plenty of worries until investors caught a whiff of the idea that Saudi Arabia could fall victim to the unrest enveloping the Middle East.

So now stocks are slipping and crawling. It’s all about the optics. If you can see a problem, then you can ignore it. But if you aren’t sure what you see, paralysis ensues.

Any real threat that the Fahd monarchy and Sunni hegemony in Saudi Arabia could possibly come under attack would spark more than a worry. It would be thunder, lightning, a hurricane, a tornado, a tidal wave and earthquake all rolled up in one sand-colored bombshell.

No one really cares about Libya, after all. The two sides there can blast each other to kingdom come for all that most investors in London, Paris, Frankfurt and Wall Street care. Sure, there’s a decent amount of oil at stake at Bayda, Benghazi & Beyond, but concerns about the region begin and end at Saudi borders. >>> Jon Markman, MarketWatch | Thursday, March 10, 2011