What Boris Johnson once described as a failure of statecraft now looms over Downing Street. As Britain prepares to end normal commercial contact with the rest of Europe, we must try to understand the endgame that is passing through the prime minister’s mind.
Johnson has egotistically ensured that the final resolution rests with him. Only a major last-minute concession by him personally can avert the economic calamity of a no-deal Brexit. In the Commons this week, he seemed to be pumping up the anti-EU rhetoric, revelling in the cheers from what must be a tiny band of no-deal enthusiasts. Can he now find the guts to back down?
Throughout the negotiations, Britain’s team has misjudged the weakness of its position. All that was required was a continuation treaty for the UK to trade freely with its 27 neighbours, as it had done for 40 years. At stake was 43% of the UK’s total export trade; by contrast, according to 2016 figures, the UK accounts for only 16% of the EU’s exports market. It was never conceivable that the UK could dictate the terms of a treaty. The issue had nothing to do with democracy or sovereignty, only with the terms on which each side wished to do business. » | Simon Jenkins | Thursday, December 10, 2020
