Friday, 5 November 2021

Bank of England’s Rate Decision Leaves Many Economists Gasping for Air

THE GUARDIAN: Analysis: decision to keep rates on hold is not unpopular but governor’s signalling is roundly criticised

The Bank expects the base rate to be 1% by the end of 2022. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty

It is “compulsory for the Bank of England governor to be an unreliable boyfriend”, Andrew Bailey joked during a press conference to explain why the central bank he runs kept interest rates on hold when action of some kind was expected.

As quips go, it fell flat in financial markets, where currency traders sold the pound, knocking more than 1% from sterling’s value against the US dollar.

It also left many economists gasping for air as the full implications of Bailey’s refusal to turn up to his own party began to sink in. He had stressed last month that monetary policy “will have to act” if there is a risk of inflation. Those words were not followed by action on Thursday, despite the rising wages and prices.

Gerard Lyons, a former candidate for governor and a former adviser to Boris Johnson, described the governor’s signalling as “appalling”, adding that by not correcting how the market or the media interpreted his comments he encouraged “hawkish expectations ahead of this meeting that was not merited by the recent data”.

Lyons went on to say the bank needed to learn from the US Federal Reserve, “to be on top of the data” and “guide” the market. » | Phillip Inman | Thursday, November 4, 2021