Nouriel Roubini : « Nous entrons dans la grande stagflation »

LE MONDE : Inflation, guerre commerciale, réchauffement climatique… Dans un entretien au « Monde », l’économiste américain, réputé pour son pessimisme, dresse la liste des grandes menaces auxquelles nos pays seront confrontés ces prochaines années.

Il est l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. Parfois surnommé « Docteur Catastrophe » en raison de ses prévisions très sombres, Nouriel Roubini, professeur d’économie à la Stern School of Business de l’université de New York, a publié un nouvel ouvrage (Mégamenaces, Buchet-Chastel, 384 pages, 23,50 euros), où il recense les risques auxquels nos économies seront confrontées en 2023 et au-delà. A commencer par celui d’une crise financière.

Vous êtes l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. La situation d’aujourd’hui est-elle comparable ?

Difficile à dire, car nous sommes confrontés à une série de risques aux horizons temporels différents. A court terme, il y a ceux liés à la guerre en Ukraine, bien sûr, à l’inflation et au spectre d’une crise financière qui pourrait advenir ces prochains mois ou dans les deux ou trois années à venir. S’ajoutent à cela des « mégamenaces » susceptibles de se matérialiser plus ou moins sévèrement sur le long terme, et qui ne relèvent pas seulement de l’économie. » | Propos recueillis par Marie Charrel | vendredi 13 janvier 2023

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Recession: The Price Britain Will Pay to Control Inflation

THE GUARDIAN: Analysis: As the Bank of England raises interest rates the message is clear – the 1970s are back

Unemployment rising. Inflation above 10%. Energy prices soaring. Living standards squeezed. The message from the Bank of England was crystal clear: the 1970s are back.

The word stagflation was not to be found in the 100-plus pages of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy report. Yet a period of weak growth and rapidly rising prices is precisely what the Bank says is in store for the UK. The current post-lockdown bounce will be short-lived and, in a real blast from the past, the economy will be driven into recession to bring inflation under control.

Nor is the pain likely to be over quickly. The economy is expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023 and remain weak in the next two years. Unless things take a marked turn for the better, the next general election will take place against a backdrop of weak growth and lengthening dole queues. » | Larry Elliot, Economics editor | Thursday, May 5, 2022

Bank of England raises interest rates as it warns of recession and 10% inflation: Rise to 1% is fourth successive increase and highest level since February 2009 »

Beware! Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head & It's The Fed's Fault

The so-called "greatest economy ever" is anything but. With each passing day, the dreaded "Stagflation" comes closer into view. Rising prices coupled with a recession is the worst of both worlds for the powers-that-shouldn't-be at The Fed. Central planning is always doomed to failure. Economic reality always strikes with a vengeance.

Bank of England's Mervyn King Warns Over Inflation
THE TELEGRAPH: Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has warned that high inflation will continue to erode earnings power through next year as the economy faces the threat of 'stagflation'.

Prices rises have consistently defied the Bank's expectations of a slowdown, adding to pressure on households as wage growth remains weak and the Government introduces a strict austerity package.

The Bank's rate-setters are charged with keeping inflation at 2% but the Consumer Prices Index benchmark has been above 3% throughout the year.

However, addressing a committee of MPs, Mr King suggested that they will be reluctant to try to curb the problem by raising borrowing costs from 0.5 per cent any time soon because of the weakness of the economy.

“There will come a point when we will certainly need to ease off the accelerator and return Bank Rate to more normal levels,” Mr King told MPs today.

“I look forward to that time because it will probably be a signal that there is a smoother drive ahead, with the economic outlook improving in a durable way. But I fear there is some considerable distance to travel before we can begin to use the word ‘normal.’” >>> | Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Stagflation, Funt and Ninja Loans: Financial Crisis Jargon among Words of the Year
THE TELEGRAPH: The financial crisis has propelled business jargon such as stagflation, ninja loans and funt onto a list of 100 new words and phrases which capture modern life, according to experts.

Stagflation, [sic] is the economic term for stagnant growth and rising inflation, funt means the financially untouchable and ninja loans comes from the abbreviation of No Income, No Job, No Assets.

Other phrases such as jingle mail, which means sending back the keys to the mortgage company when the occupants can no longer make payments on their house, are also a sign of the times according to dictionary expert Susie Dent.

However Miss Dent's Words of the Year book also includes phrases to describe other aspects of modern social life such as nomophobia, the fear of being out of mobile phone contact, nonebrity, a person who enjoys status without anyone really understanding why, and social networking to describe using websites such as Facebook.

Boris Johnson revived cripes during his successful bid for the mayorship of London, boytox was a way to describe cosmetic surgery for men and momnesia is the term for "a pattern of mental confusion and forgetfulness that characterises a mother's first year after giving birth", the book says. Stagflation, Funt and Ninja Loans: Financial Crisis Jargon among Words of the Year >>> By Jessica Salter | October 2, 2008

MAIL Online:
More on ‘Words of the Year’ By Vanessa Allen | October 2, 2008

The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Dust Jacket Hardcover, direct from the publishers (UK) >>>
The Dawning of a New Dark Age – Paperback, direct from the publishers (UK) >>>