Central banks are getting twitchy. On average, recessions have come along once a decade since the mid-1970s and the nadir of the last downturn occurred almost a decade ago.
The Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has predicted that there will be a recession in America by the time Donald Trump comes up for re-election at the end of next year.
The darkening outlook for global growth is putting pressure on the US president to resolve his trade dispute with China. When the White House announced its first tranche of protectionist measures almost a year ago, hopes were high that the world economy had at last shrugged off the long hangover from the financial crisis and deep slump of 2008-09. In the months before Trump went toe-to-toe with China’s president, Xi Jinping, it was expanding strongly and the International Monetary Fund was talking about a synchronised upturn. A year later – and with the 1 March deadline for a fresh round of US tariffs fast approaching – the mood has changed. All of which raises three big questions: » | Larry Elliott and Phillip Inman | Saturday, February 23, 2019
