Global Supply Shortages Deepen, Threatening Jobs and Growth

THE NEW YORK TIMES: After three months, the fallout of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is spreading, with developing countries bearing the brunt of the shortfall.

At the onset of the war in the Middle East, industry officials and experts warned that the closure of one of the world’s most vital maritime waterways would trigger acute shortages of oil, gas and other critical commodities. Three months into the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, those warnings are materializing across the globe.

Before the war, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. The region is also among the world’s largest suppliers of products derived from oil and gas, including fertilizer and naphtha, a liquid used in everything from plastic wrap to industrial inks.

Much of the world has largely experienced the crisis through price shocks. Physical supply shortages have afflicted economies across Asia. Developing countries everywhere, especially in Asia, have been hit the hardest, as shortfalls of oil, gas and their derivatives have strained everything from farming and cooking to medical imaging. Governments across the region have rationed power, drawn down emergency stockpiles and scrambled for alternative supplies.

“It’s not just a price shock, it’s explicit shortages,” said Krishna Srinivasan, a director at the International Monetary Fund. “In the context of shortages, industry scales back, people lose their jobs, and this has a secondary impact on growth,” Mr. Srinivasan said. » | River Akira Davis, Catie Edmondson, Eshe Nelson, Peter S. Goodman and Suhasini Raj | River Akira Davis reported from Tokyo, Catie Edmondson from Seoul, Eshe Nelson from London, Peter S. Goodman from New York and Suhasini Raj from New Delhi. | Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Global Recession If Oil Price Hits $150, Boss of Financial Giant BlackRock Warns | BBC News

Mar 25, 2026 | If the price of oil hits $150 a barrel it will trigger a global recession, the boss of US financial giant BlackRock has told the BBC.

Larry Fink, who leads the world's largest asset manager, said if Iran "remains a threat" and oil prices stay high it will have "profound implications" for the world economy.

In a wide-ranging exclusive interview, he also denied there was an AI bubble, although he said the new technology meant too many people were pursuing university degrees and not enough doing technical training.

BlackRock is a financial colossus, controlling assets worth $14 trillion (£10.5tn), and is one of the biggest investors in many of the world's largest companies.

Richard Wolff: Iran War Destroys Global Economy & US Empire

Mar 25, 2026 | Prof Richard Wolff discusses the global consequences of the US war against Iran, which is destroying the Trump presidency, the US Empire, and the global economy.

‘The Stakes Are Enormous’: How a Prolonged Iran War Could Shock the Global Economy

THE GUARDIAN: Donald Trump’s ‘little excursion’ is likely to have long-term effects, from oil prices to inflation to growth, say experts

In the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.

“There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’

Goldman Sachs told clients it expected temporary disruption. “Oil prices to decline throughout the year. But risks are skewed to the upside,” its analysts wrote. UniCredit suggested crude would be capped at about $80 a barrel. “Given its struggle for survival, the Iranian regime has an incentive to keep its response measured”.

Three weeks later, the prospect of a drawn-out war is causing mounting economic problems. Oil prices have soared above $100 a barrel, European gas prices have doubled, volatility stalks financial markets, and consumers worldwide are bracing for a surge in living costs. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank, warn the war could have a material impact on inflation and dent global growth.

“Market wisdom still holds that the war will end quickly, with the strait of Hormuz soon to reopen,” said Albert Edwards, a senior analyst at Société Générale. “Maybe the market is right, but in my opinion the risks are asymmetric that stagflation bursts the complacency bubble.”

With each day, more problems are emerging. From the soaring price of petrol and diesel for motorists, to cancelled flights and the worst travel disruption since the Covid pandemic. » | Richard Partington | Sunday, March 22, 2026

IMF Chief Warns ‘Uncertainty Is the New Normal’ in Global Economy

THE GUARDIAN: Kristalina Georgieva outlines mounting risks to economic stability before fund’s annual meetings next week

The head of the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning about the mounting risks facing the global economy, saying: “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal.”

As finance ministers and central bankers prepare to meet in Washington for the IMF’s annual meetings next week, its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva said the world economy had shown surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war.

The US is now expected to avoid recession, despite the imposition of historic tariffs on many of its trading partners, and the global economy is forecast to slow “only slightly this year and next”, she said.

But Georgieva pointed to growing signs of strain, including the record gold price – which topped $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, signalling anxiety among investors – and exceptionally high valuations for US stocks. » | Heather Stewart | Wednesday, October 8, 2025

The Guardian View on the World Economy: Another Bleak Era Beckons

THE GUARDIAN – EDITORIAL: The 2010s were a wasted decade for economies and the environment. The 20s have all the makings of a second

Remember the roaring 20s? Even as Covid gripped the world, optimists piped up that the economy would come roaring out of the pandemic, bolstering incomes and kickstarting an almighty boom. Harking back to the Spanish flu pandemic of a century earlier, they saw a decade of glorious growth ahead.

Well, they were wrong. Ahead lies not roaring but snoring; no boom, but ever-deepening gloom. That is the message from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are holding their spring meetings in Washington DC this week. In its economic outlook, the IMF not only outlines what a mediocre few years lie ahead, it is also worried that things could get even worse. As for the World Bank, it has published a 564-page book whose chief preoccupation is in its title: Falling Long-term Growth Prospects. It warns of a “lost decade in the making”, and projects that the meagre growth of the 2010s will “extend into the remainder of the current decade”. We may be less than a third of the way into the 20s but, as far as the serried ranks of the top economists in Washington are concerned, it is already game over. » | Editorial | Wednesday, April 12, 2023

A New Kind of Global Recession: Why This Time Is Different | Business Beyond

Nov 18, 2022 | The global economy is at an inflection point. The IMF projects that a third of the world economy will be in recession next year. War in Europe, a slowdown in China and soaring inflation have contributed to widespread pessimism around a growing, multifaceted economic crisis. In this episode, we will untangle the threads of the looming global recession. By comparing the current state of the global economy to the 2008 financial crisis, we will be exploring what makes this downturn different.

A Fumbled Global Response to the Virus in a Leadership Void

THE NEW YORK TIMES: While world leaders are at last speaking out about the gravity of the pandemic, their voices are less a choir than a cacophony, with the United States absent from its traditional conductor role.

LONDON — In Frankfurt, the president of the European Central Bank warned that the coronavirus could trigger an economic crash as dire as that of 2008. In Berlin, the German chancellor warned the virus could infect two-thirds of her country’s population. In London, the British prime minister rolled out a nearly $40 billion rescue package to cushion his economy from the shock.

As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon, world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic.

Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony — a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll.

The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States.

President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts. » | Mark Landler | Wednesday, March 11, 2020, updated Thursday, March 12, 2020

The Guardian View on the China-US Trade Wars: The Global Economy Is At Risk

THE GUARDIAN: Xi Jinping’s newfound readiness to let the yuan float sends a worrying message that there will be no deal by the end of August deadline

Events have moved disturbingly swiftly since Donald Trump surprised everyone last week by announcing plans for a fresh wave of tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing retaliated by targeting US agricultural products and allowing its currency to depreciate against the US dollar. Mr Trump duly fired off a tweet accusing the Chinese of currency manipulation, a clear sign that he is preparing to ratchet up the tension still further. Financial markets have responded predictably to this major escalation in the economic cold war. Share prices fell and investors sought out the traditional safe haven assets: gold and the swiss franc.

When the US president announced his first wave of protectionist measures in March 2018 he boasted that trade wars were good and easy to win. That’s not the way that the markets see things. They see the world’s two biggest economies digging in for the long haul and Mr Trump intensifying global trade tensions in order to pressurise America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates. » | Editorial | Monday, August 5, 2019

Trump's China Trade War Risks Damaging US Economy, Says OECD

THE GUARDIAN: Intensification of tariff dispute also likely to knock almost $600bn off world economy

Donald Trump has been warned by the west’s most influential economics thinktank that further escalation of the US-China trade war would unleash significant damage for the American economy, as well as the rest of the world.

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) said that an intensification of the dispute between Washington and Beijing would likely knock as much as 0.7% off the level of global GDP by 2021-22.

Under such a scenario, the hit to the world economy from higher tariffs could be quantified at almost $600bn (£472bn).

Issuing a downbeat assessment of the global economy as the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies continues to simmer, the OECD said the world’s economic momentum had weakened markedly and that growth was set to stay at a subpar rate as the tensions over trade persist. It said both the US and China stood to lose out from the imposition of higher tariffs. » | Richard Partington, Economics correspondent | Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Markets Can’t Save Us from Retail-less Economy

Dr. Jack Rasmus, professor of political economy, joins Rick Sanchez to discuss the ongoing restructuring of the US economy and how it enriches big businesses at the expense of ordinary people, whose jobs will continue to disappear. He says “the financialization of the global economy is getting worse” and that unregulated markets are incapable of rescuing Main Street or averting the coming economic crisis.

Is Global Recession Looming?

According to Heiner Flassbeck, former head of UNCTAD, there are many factors pointing to a convergence in a normal cyclical downturn deepening recession in Europe, complicated by potential hard Brexit--With host Paul Jay

The Global Economy Is Slowing Down. What Can Governments Do about It?

THE GUARDIAN: A decade after the crash, many nations are still on emergency monetary policies, even before a new downturn strikes

Central banks are getting twitchy. On average, recessions have come along once a decade since the mid-1970s and the nadir of the last downturn occurred almost a decade ago.

The Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has predicted that there will be a recession in America by the time Donald Trump comes up for re-election at the end of next year.

The darkening outlook for global growth is putting pressure on the US president to resolve his trade dispute with China. When the White House announced its first tranche of protectionist measures almost a year ago, hopes were high that the world economy had at last shrugged off the long hangover from the financial crisis and deep slump of 2008-09. In the months before Trump went toe-to-toe with China’s president, Xi Jinping, it was expanding strongly and the International Monetary Fund was talking about a synchronised upturn. A year later – and with the 1 March deadline for a fresh round of US tariffs fast approaching – the mood has changed. All of which raises three big questions: » | Larry Elliott and Phillip Inman | Saturday, February 23, 2019

No-deal Brexit 'Poses Threat to Global Stability' – CBI Head

THE GUARDIAN: Carolyn Fairbairn warns bosses at Davos that damage caused by disorderly exit could spread far beyond the UK

Fears are growing internationally that a no-deal Brexit poses a threat to the stability of the global economy, the head of Britain’s leading business body has warned.

Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the CBI, said the failure to sort out Britain’s departure from the European Union was damaging Britain’s brand abroad and had joined a list of systemic risks to the world economy.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Fairbairn said there was mounting concern at the potential for a no-deal Brexit to cause damage well beyond the UK. The CBI held a private breakfast for UK business leaders in Davos attended by the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde. The UK chancellor, Philip Hammond, will address a CBI lunch on Thursday.

Fairbairn told the Guardian: “At my meetings at Davos, there is a recognition that the causes of vulnerability of the global economy now include Brexit.” » | Larry Elliott and Graeme Weardenin Davos | Thursday, January 24, 2019

How Much Power Does Saudi Arabia Wield over the Global Economy? | Counting the Cost

Bubble Trouble: What Lies beneath at the IMF? - Counting the Cost

Why the International Monetary Fund (IMD) and Richard Thaler, the 'father of behavioural economics' and winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, are signalling danger ahead for the global economy.

The IMF has spent the last decade trying to pick up the pieces after failing to predict the last financial crisis. This week, the IMF said nearly 75 percent of the world is now experiencing an upswing.

It's predicting that the world's economy will expand by 3.6 percent in 2017 and by 3.7 percent in 2018. That's slightly higher than the 3.5 percent and the 3.6 percent growth what it was predicting back in July.

But the IMF also issued a warning: It said record low borrowing costs designed to help the economic recovery are pushing up debt levels in the world's largest economies. It singled out China as one of the worst offenders.

Shihab Rattansi reports from the annual World Bank, IMF meetings; and David Coker, a lecturer at the Westminster Business School, discusses the cracks in the global economy.

Brexit Fallout: The Global Economic Impact - Counting the Cost

The outcome of the EU referendum in Britain didn't just shake-up the United Kingdom, it also brought great uncertainty to the global markets.

Mark Carney: Bumpy Ride ahead for Global Economy

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England.

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: Bank of England Governor warns that as central banks unwind their unconventional policies, financial market volatility could return

Dramatic shifts in the financial landscape mean that a return to normal market conditions “could be bumpy”, Mark Carney, the Bank of England’s Governor has said.

Speaking at the International Symposium of the Banque de France in Paris, he discussed a shift in the form of corporate financing, away from traditional bank lending and towards instruments such as corporate bonds.

The Governor said that an increased reliance on these market-based forms of financing has put a premium on increasing the resilience of markets.

The present “low volatility environment” - reflecting a lack of uncertainty in markets - will change as central banks begin to unwind unconventional policy and raise rates, the Governor suggested.

While increases in interest rates will be gradual in nature, Mr Carney stressed, a bumpy ride may be inevitable - which in turn would affect the pace of those rate hikes. » | Peter Spence, Economics Correspondent | Friday, November 07, 2014

Christine Lagarde: Grand Vision Still Needed to Address Global Economic Problems
Confidence in the global economic recovery depends on greater political decisiveness and a bolder collective approach to policy, says International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Reuters Global Editor Chrystia Freeland caught up with Lagarde at a conference in Riga, Latvia for this edition of The Freeland File. (June 6, 2012)

Eurozone Crisis 'Threat' to Global Economy
The eurozone financial crisis could threaten the global economy, according to Organisation for Economic Development and Co-operation. The 17-nation eurozone will see its economies shrink by 0.1 per cent, before rebounding to 0.9 per cent next year, the Paris-based organisation said in its latest report released on Tuesday. Nick Spicer reports from Berlin.