You can subscribe to Daniel Lacalle’s English website here and his Spanish website here.
April 15, 2023
Daniel Lacalle : China against US: Will China and Russia Break the US Dollar?
You can subscribe to Daniel Lacalle’s English website here and his Spanish website here.
April 14, 2023
The Guardian View on the World Economy: Another Bleak Era Beckons
THE GUARDIAN – EDITORIAL: The 2010s were a wasted decade for economies and the environment. The 20s have all the makings of a second
Remember the roaring 20s? Even as Covid gripped the world, optimists piped up that the economy would come roaring out of the pandemic, bolstering incomes and kickstarting an almighty boom. Harking back to the Spanish flu pandemic of a century earlier, they saw a decade of glorious growth ahead.
Well, they were wrong. Ahead lies not roaring but snoring; no boom, but ever-deepening gloom. That is the message from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are holding their spring meetings in Washington DC this week. In its economic outlook, the IMF not only outlines what a mediocre few years lie ahead, it is also worried that things could get even worse. As for the World Bank, it has published a 564-page book whose chief preoccupation is in its title: Falling Long-term Growth Prospects. It warns of a “lost decade in the making”, and projects that the meagre growth of the 2010s will “extend into the remainder of the current decade”. We may be less than a third of the way into the 20s but, as far as the serried ranks of the top economists in Washington are concerned, it is already game over. » | Editorial | Wednesday, April 12, 2023
Remember the roaring 20s? Even as Covid gripped the world, optimists piped up that the economy would come roaring out of the pandemic, bolstering incomes and kickstarting an almighty boom. Harking back to the Spanish flu pandemic of a century earlier, they saw a decade of glorious growth ahead.
Well, they were wrong. Ahead lies not roaring but snoring; no boom, but ever-deepening gloom. That is the message from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are holding their spring meetings in Washington DC this week. In its economic outlook, the IMF not only outlines what a mediocre few years lie ahead, it is also worried that things could get even worse. As for the World Bank, it has published a 564-page book whose chief preoccupation is in its title: Falling Long-term Growth Prospects. It warns of a “lost decade in the making”, and projects that the meagre growth of the 2010s will “extend into the remainder of the current decade”. We may be less than a third of the way into the 20s but, as far as the serried ranks of the top economists in Washington are concerned, it is already game over. » | Editorial | Wednesday, April 12, 2023
March 29, 2023
January 25, 2023
Blogging Leave
MARK ALEXANDER: I have been blogging here and elsewhere for a very long time now. As a result, I need some R&R; I am feeling exhausted.
For this reason, I have decided to take a break from blogging for a little while. I need to re-charge the batteries. I therefore ask for your understanding. I shall be back with you as soon as possible. But a little rest will be good for me at this time.
For all the support you have given me thus far, I thank you all kindly. Naturally, all the content of the blog will remain at your disposal.
I thank you for your understanding; and, naturally, for your continued loyalty.
Best wishes to all
Mark Alexander
For this reason, I have decided to take a break from blogging for a little while. I need to re-charge the batteries. I therefore ask for your understanding. I shall be back with you as soon as possible. But a little rest will be good for me at this time.
For all the support you have given me thus far, I thank you all kindly. Naturally, all the content of the blog will remain at your disposal.
I thank you for your understanding; and, naturally, for your continued loyalty.
Best wishes to all
Mark Alexander
January 18, 2023
Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission | Davos 2023
‘Tax Us Now’: Ultra-rich Call on Governments to Introduce Wealth Taxes
THE GUARDIAN: Disney heiress and actor Mark Ruffalo among ‘patriotic millionaires’ who addressed world’s elite at Davos
Abigail Disney was part of a group of 205 millionaires and billionaires from 13 countries to sign the letter. Photograph: Charles Sykes/Invision/AP
More than 200 members of the super-rich elite are calling on governments around the world to “tax us, the ultra rich, now” in order to help billions of people struggling with cost of living crisis.
The group of 205 millionaires and billionaires, including the Disney heiress Abigail Disney and The Hulk actor Mark Ruffalo, on Wednesday called on world leaders and business executives meeting in Davos for the World Economic Forum (WEF) to urgently introduce wealth taxes to help tackle “extreme inequality”.
“The current lack of action is gravely concerning. A meeting of the ‘global elite’ in Davos to discuss ’cooperation in a fragmented world’ is pointless if you aren’t challenging the root cause of division,” they said in an open letter published on Wednesday. “Defending democracy and building cooperation requires action to build fairer economies right now – it is not a problem that can be left for our children to fix.
“Now is the time to tackle extreme wealth; now is the time to tax the ultra rich.” » | Rupert Neate, Wealth correspondent | Wednesday, January 18, 2023
More than 200 members of the super-rich elite are calling on governments around the world to “tax us, the ultra rich, now” in order to help billions of people struggling with cost of living crisis.
The group of 205 millionaires and billionaires, including the Disney heiress Abigail Disney and The Hulk actor Mark Ruffalo, on Wednesday called on world leaders and business executives meeting in Davos for the World Economic Forum (WEF) to urgently introduce wealth taxes to help tackle “extreme inequality”.
“The current lack of action is gravely concerning. A meeting of the ‘global elite’ in Davos to discuss ’cooperation in a fragmented world’ is pointless if you aren’t challenging the root cause of division,” they said in an open letter published on Wednesday. “Defending democracy and building cooperation requires action to build fairer economies right now – it is not a problem that can be left for our children to fix.
“Now is the time to tackle extreme wealth; now is the time to tax the ultra rich.” » | Rupert Neate, Wealth correspondent | Wednesday, January 18, 2023
January 17, 2023
Der Bitcoin steigt über die 20 000-Dollar-Marke. Ist der Krypto-Winter damit schon wieder vorbei?
NEUE ZÜRCHER ZEITUNG: Die bekannteste Krypto-Währung Bitcoin hat am Wochenende bisweilen mehr als 21 000 Dollar gekostet. Anleger fragen sich nun, ob die Branche den Untergang der Krypto-Börse FTX bereits verdaut hat.
Der Kollaps von FTX letzten November kam einem Erdbeben in der Krypto-Welt gleich. Hinzu kamen die steil steigenden Zinsen. Diese beiden Faktoren führten dazu, dass die Kurse vieler Krypto-Währungen markant fielen. Allen voran der Bitcoin-Kurs. Der Wert der gemessen an der Marktkapitalisierung wertvollsten Digitalwährung brach seit letztem April von rund 46 000 Dollar auf 16 000 Dollar ein. Am Wochenende hat der Bitcoin die 20 000-Dollar-Marke aber wieder überschritten. » | Isabelle Wachter | Montag, 16. Januar 2023
Der Kollaps von FTX letzten November kam einem Erdbeben in der Krypto-Welt gleich. Hinzu kamen die steil steigenden Zinsen. Diese beiden Faktoren führten dazu, dass die Kurse vieler Krypto-Währungen markant fielen. Allen voran der Bitcoin-Kurs. Der Wert der gemessen an der Marktkapitalisierung wertvollsten Digitalwährung brach seit letztem April von rund 46 000 Dollar auf 16 000 Dollar ein. Am Wochenende hat der Bitcoin die 20 000-Dollar-Marke aber wieder überschritten. » | Isabelle Wachter | Montag, 16. Januar 2023
January 13, 2023
Nouriel Roubini : « Nous entrons dans la grande stagflation »
LE MONDE : Inflation, guerre commerciale, réchauffement climatique… Dans un entretien au « Monde », l’économiste américain, réputé pour son pessimisme, dresse la liste des grandes menaces auxquelles nos pays seront confrontés ces prochaines années.
Il est l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. Parfois surnommé « Docteur Catastrophe » en raison de ses prévisions très sombres, Nouriel Roubini, professeur d’économie à la Stern School of Business de l’université de New York, a publié un nouvel ouvrage (Mégamenaces, Buchet-Chastel, 384 pages, 23,50 euros), où il recense les risques auxquels nos économies seront confrontées en 2023 et au-delà. A commencer par celui d’une crise financière.
Vous êtes l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. La situation d’aujourd’hui est-elle comparable ?
Difficile à dire, car nous sommes confrontés à une série de risques aux horizons temporels différents. A court terme, il y a ceux liés à la guerre en Ukraine, bien sûr, à l’inflation et au spectre d’une crise financière qui pourrait advenir ces prochains mois ou dans les deux ou trois années à venir. S’ajoutent à cela des « mégamenaces » susceptibles de se matérialiser plus ou moins sévèrement sur le long terme, et qui ne relèvent pas seulement de l’économie. » | Propos recueillis par Marie Charrel | vendredi 13 janvier 2023
Article réservé aux abonnés
Il est l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. Parfois surnommé « Docteur Catastrophe » en raison de ses prévisions très sombres, Nouriel Roubini, professeur d’économie à la Stern School of Business de l’université de New York, a publié un nouvel ouvrage (Mégamenaces, Buchet-Chastel, 384 pages, 23,50 euros), où il recense les risques auxquels nos économies seront confrontées en 2023 et au-delà. A commencer par celui d’une crise financière.
Vous êtes l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. La situation d’aujourd’hui est-elle comparable ?
Difficile à dire, car nous sommes confrontés à une série de risques aux horizons temporels différents. A court terme, il y a ceux liés à la guerre en Ukraine, bien sûr, à l’inflation et au spectre d’une crise financière qui pourrait advenir ces prochains mois ou dans les deux ou trois années à venir. S’ajoutent à cela des « mégamenaces » susceptibles de se matérialiser plus ou moins sévèrement sur le long terme, et qui ne relèvent pas seulement de l’économie. » | Propos recueillis par Marie Charrel | vendredi 13 janvier 2023
Article réservé aux abonnés
January 01, 2023
Croatia Adopts Euro, Joins Schengen: What Are the Pros and Cons? | DW News
December 16, 2022
“We Are in a Debt Trap” - Nouriel Roubini on 10 ‘Megathreats’ to Our World and How to Stop Them
Dec 16, 2022 | Nouriel Roubini is an economist, a professor in New York, a global economic consultant and an author who, amongst many distinguishing things, was one of those who foresaw the 2008 credit crunch and financial crisis.
His latest work is called ‘Megathreats’, and it details 10 trends that make it more likely than not that we are heading for a global economic crash of stagnant growth, debt crises and high inflation that will cause decades of dystopian suffering and injustice. No wonder they call him Dr. Doom.
In this episode, Nouriel joins Krishnan to talk about climate change, job-displacing artificial intelligence and our future.
Produced by: Imahn Robertson
His latest work is called ‘Megathreats’, and it details 10 trends that make it more likely than not that we are heading for a global economic crash of stagnant growth, debt crises and high inflation that will cause decades of dystopian suffering and injustice. No wonder they call him Dr. Doom.
In this episode, Nouriel joins Krishnan to talk about climate change, job-displacing artificial intelligence and our future.
Produced by: Imahn Robertson
December 15, 2022
Gefährlicher Umgang mit der Inflation: Die Notenbanken verkleinern ihre Zinsschritte und wecken damit unbegründete Hoffnungen
NEUE ZÜRCHER ZEITUNG: In den USA, im Euro-Raum und in der Schweiz haben die Notenbanken allesamt etwas Tempo aus ihrer Politik steigender Zinsen genommen. Die Verlangsamung bedeutet aber nicht, dass die Währungsbehörden das Problem der hohen Inflation bereits unter Kontrolle haben.
Weniger Güter für mehr Geld: Die Inflation macht sich auch beim Einkauf bemerkbar. | Gaetan Bally / Keystone
KOMMENTAR
Zuerst die gute Nachricht: Im laufenden Jahr haben die grossen Zentralbanken endlich den Ernst der Lage erkannt. Sie haben realisiert, dass die lange Zeit totgeglaubte Inflation noch immer quicklebendig ist. Und sie haben auf das Hochschnellen des Preisniveaus mit einer Straffung ihrer zuvor extrem expansiven Geldpolitik reagiert. So auch diese Woche: Nachdem am Mittwoch die amerikanische Notenbank den Leitzins erhöht hatte, doppelten am Donnerstag die Schweizerische Na¬tionalbank (SNB), die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) und die Bank of England (BoE) nach.
Grosse Unterschiede zwischen den Währungsräumen
Doch so einheitlich die geballte Ladung an Geldpolitik erscheinen mag, so gross bleiben die Unterschiede zwischen den Währungsräumen: Schon ziemlich weit bei der Zinsnormalisierung sind die USA. Dort hat das Fed nach zögerlichem Beginn die Zügel bereits so stark angezogen, dass nun das Tempo leicht gedrosselt wird. So ist der Leitsatz am Mittwoch nach vier Zinsschritten um je 0,75 Prozentpunkte nur noch um 0,50 Prozentpunkte erhöht worden. Dies auch deshalb, weil Amerikas Geldpolitik bereits bremsend auf die Konjunktur zu wirken beginnt. » | Thomas Fuster | Donnerstag, 15. Dezember 2022
Zuerst die gute Nachricht: Im laufenden Jahr haben die grossen Zentralbanken endlich den Ernst der Lage erkannt. Sie haben realisiert, dass die lange Zeit totgeglaubte Inflation noch immer quicklebendig ist. Und sie haben auf das Hochschnellen des Preisniveaus mit einer Straffung ihrer zuvor extrem expansiven Geldpolitik reagiert. So auch diese Woche: Nachdem am Mittwoch die amerikanische Notenbank den Leitzins erhöht hatte, doppelten am Donnerstag die Schweizerische Na¬tionalbank (SNB), die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) und die Bank of England (BoE) nach.
Grosse Unterschiede zwischen den Währungsräumen
Doch so einheitlich die geballte Ladung an Geldpolitik erscheinen mag, so gross bleiben die Unterschiede zwischen den Währungsräumen: Schon ziemlich weit bei der Zinsnormalisierung sind die USA. Dort hat das Fed nach zögerlichem Beginn die Zügel bereits so stark angezogen, dass nun das Tempo leicht gedrosselt wird. So ist der Leitsatz am Mittwoch nach vier Zinsschritten um je 0,75 Prozentpunkte nur noch um 0,50 Prozentpunkte erhöht worden. Dies auch deshalb, weil Amerikas Geldpolitik bereits bremsend auf die Konjunktur zu wirken beginnt. » | Thomas Fuster | Donnerstag, 15. Dezember 2022
Bank of England Raises Interest Rates to 3.5% in Ninth Increase in a Year
THE GUARDIAN: Majority of MPC rate-setters back hike of 0.5 percentage points despite fears UK is entering a long recession
The Bank of England has raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% in an effort to combat double-digit inflation that has caused a widespread cost of living crisis.
Members of the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted to increase the cost of borrowing after the consumer prices index in November showed annual inflation of 10.7%.
A majority of the Bank’s rate-setting committee said the ninth increase in the base rate over the past year was necessary to bring down inflation by 2025 to its 2% target. » | Phillip Inman | Thursday, December 15, 2022
The Bank of England has raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% in an effort to combat double-digit inflation that has caused a widespread cost of living crisis.
Members of the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted to increase the cost of borrowing after the consumer prices index in November showed annual inflation of 10.7%.
A majority of the Bank’s rate-setting committee said the ninth increase in the base rate over the past year was necessary to bring down inflation by 2025 to its 2% target. » | Phillip Inman | Thursday, December 15, 2022
December 14, 2022
Bank of England Poised to Raise Borrowing Costs to Combat Inflation
THE GUARDIAN: Financial markets expect 0.5 percentage point increase as fears mount that UK is about to enter long recession
The Bank of England is poised to increase the cost of borrowing for households and businesses at its interest meeting today, as fears mount that the UK economy is about to enter a long recession.
Financial markets expect a 0.5 percentage point increase in the central bank’s base rate to 3.5% as the monetary policy committee seeks to combat inflation.
The consumer prices index (CPI) fell back from 11.1% in October to 10.7% last month, according to data released Wednesday, mainly from weaker increases in petrol, clothing and food, but remains well above the BoE’s 2% target.
Jeremy Hunt has indicated he will welcome a tough stance on rates by officials at Threadneedle Street after he said bringing down inflation was his main mission. » | Phillip Inman | Wednesday, December 14, 2022
The Bank of England is poised to increase the cost of borrowing for households and businesses at its interest meeting today, as fears mount that the UK economy is about to enter a long recession.
Financial markets expect a 0.5 percentage point increase in the central bank’s base rate to 3.5% as the monetary policy committee seeks to combat inflation.
The consumer prices index (CPI) fell back from 11.1% in October to 10.7% last month, according to data released Wednesday, mainly from weaker increases in petrol, clothing and food, but remains well above the BoE’s 2% target.
Jeremy Hunt has indicated he will welcome a tough stance on rates by officials at Threadneedle Street after he said bringing down inflation was his main mission. » | Phillip Inman | Wednesday, December 14, 2022
FTX Boss Sam Bankman-Fried Charged with Defrauding Investors by US - BBC News
December 10, 2022
Cuba: High Prices, Lines and Shortages | DW Documentary
Oct 22, 2022 | In Cuba, the socialist project begun by revolutionary hero and former president Fidel Castro is teetering on the verge of failure. The nation is sinking deeper into crisis, with many people’s daily lives marred by shortages of food, medicine and electricity.
Cuba has been subject to sanctions for decades. Despite recent attempts at reform, the country is increasingly isolated and economically dependent. A currency reform enacted in 2021 is also causing major problems, with inflation soaring and prices skyrocketing. Food is scarce, and lines in front of the few state-run stores are getting longer and longer.
Poverty is on the rise. Even the famous ingenuity of the Cuban people is reaching its limits as they try to cope with the day-to-day effects of the crisis. Images of bygone revolutionaries are fading in the streets the capital, Havana, and all over the island. Official voices continue to broadcast the state’s ideology, but ordinary people are losing hope that things will improve.
Cuba has been subject to sanctions for decades. Despite recent attempts at reform, the country is increasingly isolated and economically dependent. A currency reform enacted in 2021 is also causing major problems, with inflation soaring and prices skyrocketing. Food is scarce, and lines in front of the few state-run stores are getting longer and longer.
Poverty is on the rise. Even the famous ingenuity of the Cuban people is reaching its limits as they try to cope with the day-to-day effects of the crisis. Images of bygone revolutionaries are fading in the streets the capital, Havana, and all over the island. Official voices continue to broadcast the state’s ideology, but ordinary people are losing hope that things will improve.
December 09, 2022
Jeremy Hunt Sets Out Sweeping Reforms to Financial Sector
THE GUARDIAN: Chancellor says plans will ensure City ‘benefits from dynamic, proportionate regulation’
The chancellor has announced plans to reform and repeal a number of City regulations, including rules originally meant to protect the UK from another financial crisis, in order to “unlock” investment and “turbocharge” growth across the UK.
Jeremy Hunt’s package of more than 30 reforms was announced as he travelled to Edinburgh to meet a group of chief executives from banks and insurers, who the government hopes will be in a stronger position to grow and compete with international peers as a result of the deregulation drive.
The package, known as the “Edinburgh reforms”, is wide-ranging, spanning from plans to consult on a new central bank digital currency to changing tax rules for investment trusts involved in real estate, and reforming rules around short selling – where investors bet that the price of an asset will drop.
The government said it also plans to trial a new trading venue that would operate intermittently but allow companies to raise money from investors before officially floating shares on the public market. » | Kalyeena Makortoff, Banking correspondent | Friday, December 9, 2022
The chancellor has announced plans to reform and repeal a number of City regulations, including rules originally meant to protect the UK from another financial crisis, in order to “unlock” investment and “turbocharge” growth across the UK.
Jeremy Hunt’s package of more than 30 reforms was announced as he travelled to Edinburgh to meet a group of chief executives from banks and insurers, who the government hopes will be in a stronger position to grow and compete with international peers as a result of the deregulation drive.
The package, known as the “Edinburgh reforms”, is wide-ranging, spanning from plans to consult on a new central bank digital currency to changing tax rules for investment trusts involved in real estate, and reforming rules around short selling – where investors bet that the price of an asset will drop.
The government said it also plans to trial a new trading venue that would operate intermittently but allow companies to raise money from investors before officially floating shares on the public market. » | Kalyeena Makortoff, Banking correspondent | Friday, December 9, 2022
December 07, 2022
City Faces Fresh Post-Brexit Blow as EU Moves to Restrict Certain Trades
THE GUARDIAN: Battle focuses on what EU sees as bloc’s over-reliance on London’s clearing houses handling euro-denominated derivatives
The City of London faces another post-Brexit blow to its dominance after the EU moved to require firms to settle more financial-risk reducing trades within the bloc.
The plan centres on trades in securities known as derivatives, and on financial market clearing houses, the intermediaries that enable the transfer of funds to sellers and financial products to buyers. Handling trillions of transactions each year, they are deemed an essential part of financial market plumbing that reduces risk.
Since Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016, the subject has become a battleground, as Brussels seeks to end what it sees as an over-reliance of European firms on London for euro-denominated derivatives trades. » | Jennifer Rankin in Brussels | Wednesday, December 7, 2022
The City of London faces another post-Brexit blow to its dominance after the EU moved to require firms to settle more financial-risk reducing trades within the bloc.
The plan centres on trades in securities known as derivatives, and on financial market clearing houses, the intermediaries that enable the transfer of funds to sellers and financial products to buyers. Handling trillions of transactions each year, they are deemed an essential part of financial market plumbing that reduces risk.
Since Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016, the subject has become a battleground, as Brussels seeks to end what it sees as an over-reliance of European firms on London for euro-denominated derivatives trades. » | Jennifer Rankin in Brussels | Wednesday, December 7, 2022
December 02, 2022
Germany to Smooth Entry for Foreign Skilled Workers | DW Business
December 01, 2022
Brexit Added Nearly £6bn to UK Food Bills in Two Years, Research Finds
THE GUARDIAN: Cost of food imported from EU rose because of extra red tape, with poorest most affected
Brexit added almost £6bn to UK food bills in the two years to the end of 2021, affecting poorest households the most, research has found.
The cost of food imported from the EU shot up because of extra red tape, adding £210 to the average household food bills over 2020 and 2021, London School of Economics (LSE) researchers discovered.
As low-income families spend a greater share of their income on food, the impact of Brexit on their purchases was disproportionately greater, they said. » | Lisa O'Carroll, Brexit correspondent | Thursday, Dece,mer 1, 2022
Brexit added almost £6bn to UK food bills in the two years to the end of 2021, affecting poorest households the most, research has found.
The cost of food imported from the EU shot up because of extra red tape, adding £210 to the average household food bills over 2020 and 2021, London School of Economics (LSE) researchers discovered.
As low-income families spend a greater share of their income on food, the impact of Brexit on their purchases was disproportionately greater, they said. » | Lisa O'Carroll, Brexit correspondent | Thursday, Dece,mer 1, 2022
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